January 25, 2018 at 10:17 am #396
Time to dip in to the collective knowledge.
A kid I work with reckoned that he had a fool proof method of winning at roulette.
I have been testing it today on a roulette app and it works but you need a lot of money behind you to ensure you win.
I have never actually been in a casino so I don’t know the rules but would this be allowed as it totally takes chance out of the game.
The idea is simple and to describe it I will start with £1, put 1 on red or black, you win you get 2 back, you lose then put 2 on the colour you chose, you win you get 4 so your actually 1 up on your starting point. As long as you stand fast and double the bet every loss and keep the bet on the colour you started with you will win eventually. The longest loosing streak I had was 6 so that meant I had lost 63 and needed to bet 64 to end up 1 up.
That was rare though, most of the time a red would come up between every 1 and 3 spins.
Using the free app I was better £10 a time and I was £100 up within 5 mins. The only way to lose is to run out of stake money before your colour comes up.
So would a casino allow you to play this way?January 25, 2018 at 10:18 am #397
No idea if a Casino would let you do this but don’t try it on the online roulette games, I’m convinced they’re rigged to weed out exactly this kind of thing and you’ll lose all your money.January 25, 2018 at 10:18 am #398
The casino will happily let you play like this. The house edge is still 2.7% if you bet on red or black so they couldn’t care less how you play. Their bankroll is much bigger than yours so you will still run out of money eventually.
Roulette is a fair game and the only strategy for a (non-rigged) roulette game is to be the casino!January 25, 2018 at 10:19 am #399
Don’t do it – it’s extremely dangerous.
You can quickly get to a situation where you’re wagering vast sums of money to try to win a very small amount; ultimately you run the risk of reaching a point where you simply can’t afford to place the bet, or, more likely, you’ll reach the max stake for the table and be unable to win your money back. And yes, the casino may decide they don’t like what you’re doing and refuse to take further wagers.
Of course, probability being what it is, you’ll usually get away with this – you have a high chance of winning a small amount, and a small chance of losing a huge amount.
It isn’t a winning strategy in the long term, though – whatever you do in European Roulette you will tend towards losing an average of 1/37th of the total amount you wager, the house edge is built in. (1/74th for French Roulette, 1/19th for American Roulette with the 0 and 00).January 25, 2018 at 10:19 am #400
It’s a known as the Martingale method and is very well known.
In theory yes it would always work if you had unlimited money but in reality it’s quite easy to run out of money quickly, with £10 a time you only a good streak of losses before you’re getting into big numbers and most tables will have a table limit on red and black.
What you’re actually doing is offsetting your odds by increasing your stake. So you’ll win £10 again and again and again, then suddenly you’ll lose a big sum which will wipe out all your winnings.January 25, 2018 at 10:20 am #401
online roulette games, I’m convinced they’re rigged to weed out exactly this kind of thing
@flyguy I don’t think the major ones are – they don’t have to be. If they have lots of people playing, they’re raking in the house edge anyway.January 25, 2018 at 10:20 am #402
won’t a table limit kick in at some point and stop you placing a high bet?January 25, 2018 at 10:21 am #403
The method works, as does the same if you bet on the favourite horse in every race until you won your desired amount. It does require a large working pot compared to what you want to gain though and critically discipline. If you go in with say a grand, you win your £50 in 5mins, you have to walk away. Most can’t.January 25, 2018 at 10:22 am #404
As @andpandy says the table limits (max and min) are set so you max out and lose a large amount of money too often for it to make economical sense.
In the end the house always wins!January 25, 2018 at 10:23 am #405
The method works, as does the same if you bet on the favourite horse in every race until you won your desired amount.
@funny Nope, it would only work if you had infinite money and time and the bookie/casino would accept infinite stakes.
It’s simply a form of low-odds betting, where you risk a large amount for a high (but not certain) probability of winning a small amount.
It’s negative value – people doing it lose money on average (though many get lucky).January 25, 2018 at 10:24 am #406
It’s not fool proof and you’ll make very little.
Say you play for £1, forget the 0 and let’s pretend the wheel goes red them black, etc so you win every other go.
After 100 spinss you’ve won £50, it’s taken you 3 hours and you’re making £16/hour minus expenses. You’re not going to break their bank and is it really worthwhile.
??????So them instead of £1 let’s go for £100, with a view to making £5k in an evening. But your run of 6 meant you needed almost £7k of cash on you. What happens if it’s the last few spins of the night, if it goes wrong on just the last 4 that’s £1500 gone.January 25, 2018 at 10:25 am #407
Further to my above post, given losing 6 times means losing 63x stake and having to gamble 64x, is we assumed that you couldn’t fund that, then based on that occuring ~3.9% of the time in 10 games (I excluded zero to make the maths possible in my head), you’d only have a 50:50 chance of making it past 170 spins.
Then only thing that favours the casino is you running out of money or having a hard stop. The longer you play the more it acts in their favour. The less you play the less you can make from this route.
Want a guaranteed way to beat the casinos. Find one with a good restaurant, invariably the food and drink is subsidised by the gambling to draw you in.
Go and have a nice steak washed down with some of last decades burgundy. Enjoy the satisfaction of paying less than in a pure restaurant. Leave without gambling.January 25, 2018 at 10:26 am #408
As each bet is independent of each other bet, why not start with the highest bet first and work down? Then, if you loose the highest bet, you don’t have to loose all the other ones to get there and you have halved your losses. Win and you don’t have to loose all the other bets either and come out richer.January 25, 2018 at 10:29 am #410
Doubling up. When I first started work in the 60s a mate at work suggested exactly this to me. Foolproof, he said. We went to a casino with something like £20 between us (this was as far as I remember 1967 or 68). We came out that night with £110 each, which seemed a fortune at the time. So of course went back the next night… and lost it all. Yes, you have to have a huge amount of money to make it work, the casino has to have no limit to how many times you can double up and thirdly there’s always the chance that the ball lands on zero in which case the bank wins.January 25, 2018 at 10:32 am #411
The other way to win in the casinos is to play games against other people and not the casino. For example in the poker room, the casino might still take 5% off the table, but if you are more than 5% better than the other players then you will take their money and end up ahead on average
The casino couldn’t care less who wins (someone always does) as they still take 5% but if you are a good player playing against drunken people that lost their money on roulette, blackjack and other losing propositions then you can walk away with their money (- the casino’s fee).
In this case, the skill comes in learning the game and trying not to be the patsJanuary 25, 2018 at 10:33 am #412
The way you’re playing, where you stick on the same colour (or odds and evens,) means you aren’t taking it independently, but that you don’t get them same in a row enough to hit the upper limit. I triple each time, if I’m lucky, it goes well, but is time consuming, if I’m not, I’m bust. I use it, but only when dragged to a casino for a social occasion and set myself an upper limit.January 25, 2018 at 10:34 am #413
Bloody hell, that’s a lot of replies. I should have mentioned in the first post I have zero intention of going to a casino to try this and I don’t trust the online stuff, I’m sure it’s regulated but no thanks.
To those saying it won’t work, it certainly worked for a couple of hours on the free app today, placing a £10 bet and doubling each loss, with 6 losses in a row being the max I saw that only needs a float of £1270 to cover it, 7 losses would need £2540 and 8 would be £5080. I don’t know the odds but the chances of a solid run of black or 0 (assuming I stick with red) must be tiny.
But the main log jam would be the table limit, I never thought about that but I am pretty sure that a table that would take a £10 bet wouldn’t take a £1270 bet if only to prevent people doing this. At the end of the day the house always wins otherwise there would be no house.
All academic anyway because I don’t gamble. I have an addictive personality and would be the person emptying my wallet chasing that one big win so I avoid it totally. (quit drinking 28 years ago for the same reason, always had to be the last man standing)January 25, 2018 at 10:35 am #414
There’s a good explanation here, for the doubters:January 25, 2018 at 10:36 am #415
Many years ago, me and some pals had a winning strategy for the casino. We were bumming around for a while in Phnom Penh and there was this casino on a boat on the centre of town. Mainly Chinese businessmen (no Cambodians allowed) and us (scruffy backpackers) in the casino. We would play this dice game called sic bo. Between us we would scrape together about $10, then one of us would play betting tiny amounts. How did we win? Well, free drinks for those gambling…so we would stretch out our $10 for as long as we could (some nights we did well and came out in profit) but we always left long of about 6 to 7 pints of some dodgy asian lager on our way to Martinis.
One funny story from those nights…one of the guys I was hanging around with was an aussie who could speak fluent mandarin. He was at the sic bo table and we were huddled behind him drinking and giving useless advice. One of us knocked over a beer and it spilt all over the felt cloth of the game table. Whilst the croupier cleaned it up, a Chinese man turned to his group of friends and said something and they all laughed. My friend heard what he said (“f*cking foreigners”) and turned to him and said in perfect chinese “Your a f*cking foreigner in this country too mate” The reaction was hilarious, the Chinese group reacted in utter shame, red faces and they all got up and left immediately in silence. We felt like rock stars for a few minutes…good times.January 25, 2018 at 10:39 am #416
You’re using the technique to change your high chance of losing a small amount into a small chance of losing a high amount.
The less likely you make the loss, the more catastrophic it is if it happens.
You can achieve the same thing by backing very low odds, laying high odds, on an exchange – you’re unlikely to lose on any given bet, but guess what happens if you run the maths for the long term…
The only way to beat this is if you’re backing at higher than true odds, or laying at lower than true odds. But if you’re managing to do that, there’s no need for all the fancy doubling-up and such systems.January 25, 2018 at 10:41 am #417
You can’t create value from nowhere, you can just play with the risk profile.
The nice thing about casino gambling is it is easy to do the analysis. When businesses are playing what is basically the same system in more complex circumstances such as a company which continually grows by acquisition or a bank operating a continually expanding position in financial markets it isn’t as obvious. There can be years of apparent success before there’s a catastrophic failure and a lot of people can get rich from pay and bonuses while it is happening.January 25, 2018 at 10:42 am #418
It isn’t a winning strategy in the long term, though – whatever you do in European Roulette you will tend towards losing an average of 1/37th of the total amount you wager, the house edge is built in. (1/74th for French Roulette, 1/19th for American Roulette with the 0 and 00).
@mark1 I’ve always felt that physical roulette (rather than online) is winnable, but I don’t think I could do the level of analysis required to win. You only need a small advantage (and a large pot) to overcome the house edge.
A lot of wheels are biased, so certain numbers or sectors are more probable than 1/37th. Also, a lot of croupiers are not random, so based on the point of release, certain sectors will be more probable. But for biased wheels, you need to analyse thousands of throws. And for autopilot croupiers, you would need to analyse and react very quickly and apparently innocently.January 25, 2018 at 10:43 am #419
@carly Yeah, it may be possible to get an edge on a particular wheel or with a particular croupier – but, in addition to the enormous amount of work required to do this, you have to remember that the casino will be looking out for this and will work against you. They can (and do) rotate croupiers to make this harder, and can simply refuse to take your bets if they want.
You’d have to be enormously skilled at subterfuge to beat a casino at their own game!January 25, 2018 at 10:43 am #420
Have some fun with this one. I put a max bet at £1024, 100 spins. Played it 17 times in a row, for 16 I had a net gain each time, on the 17th I wiped out all of that and ended up -£1285.
Even with hindsight, stopping at 16 x 100 would only have given me £719. To take £1000 into a casino, leave with £44 profit after a few hours.January 25, 2018 at 10:44 am #421
The house always wins.January 25, 2018 at 10:46 am #422
It’s not a guaranteed winning strategy as you don’t have infinite time and money. If one of those is finite you can’t guarantee to win. You have a certain odds of being up after so many days, which declines with time. But as ‘potential’ profit increases with time, it’s the human factor that ultimately makes it unwinnable.
Most normal people seem quite good at walking away from high risk-low chance-high payout of winning but find it harder to avoid high risk-high chance-low payout.
As an example of the former, you have the people selling those expensive lottery tickets at airport, disguised as win a car. Do many people as a % really play?
But on the other hand speeding in a car, very common. Payout: fractionally quicker journey, risk : high points/fine/accident/death, chance: most times you speed you don’t suffer the risks.January 25, 2018 at 10:49 am #423
I read a thing about how professional gamblers in ’30s America used to find crooked games, wait for someone to place a big stake on a specific number and then place a relatively small bet on one of the numbers opposite. Because the tables were often rigged so the croupiers could keep the ball away from the numbers where the big money was, this skewed the odds in their favour enough for them to turn a profit.
Edit: I mean, since the tables were mostly run by the mob this may not have lead to a long and happy life anyway, but I’m still impressed by the ingenuity.
- This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by mo.
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